纽约：经济危机殃及餐饮业
New York's vaunted restaurant scene is in for some lean times, according to the newest Zagat survey released on Tuesday, with price hikes coming at a time when diners say they are eating out less often and spending less in the face of dire economic conditions.
"Restaurants are clearly feeling the pinch from the economic crisis," said Tim Zagat, founder of the survey now in its 30th year which bases its food, decor and service ratings for some 2,000 restaurants on feedback from restaurant patrons.
But he added that the industry would weather the hard times, just as it did following the 1987 stock market crash and the September 11 attacks.
The pullback was not limited to diners, either, the survey found. Restaurant openings declined for the first time since 2003, down to 119 from last year's 163, and 187 just three years ago.
Nearly 40 percent of the survey's 38,000-plus respondents said they were coping with the shaky economy by eating out less often, and by patronizing less expensive restaurants.
All this in a year in which Zagat found prices up 3.3 percent, or far more than the one percent annual hike that prevailed over the past six years. High-end diners were hit even harder, with a nearly 10 percent tab increase.
The average tab in New York was $40.78, still less than the steepest US total of $44.44 in Las Vegas, and far behind other world capitals such as Paris, Tokyo, and even Toronto.
The bracing findings were one explanation for a spate of new burger, pizza and barbecue places that popped up this year, the survey noted. Even celebrity chefs such as Alain Ducasse and Jean-Georges Vongerichten opened bistros or noodle shops.
Any good news mostly centered around establishments that topped the ratings. Per Se nabbed the top spot for the first time for both food and service, with diners citing an "unforgettable, transcendental gastronomic marathon" -- with an average $303 tab to match.
The ratings cellar was once again reserved for theme restaurants like American Girl Place or Hard Rock Cafe, but celebrity hangout Elaine's scraped bottom with even lower marks for service and décor.
据Zagat调查公司本周二发布的一项最新调查显示，纽约的高档餐厅如今可是生意惨淡。受经济危机和物价上涨的影响，纽约人不再像过去那样经常“下馆子”，餐饮支出也有所减少。
该调查的发起人蒂姆•扎格特说：“餐饮业已明显感到经济危机的影响。”这项已有30年历史的年度调查主要根据食客的反馈评估纽约约2000家餐厅的菜品、装修和服务。
但扎格特认为，这次餐饮业最终会度过难关，就像挺过1987年的股市崩盘和“9/11”恐怖袭击一样。
此外，调查发现，少的还不仅仅是食客，今年纽约新开张的餐馆数量自2003年来首次下跌，从去年的163家减少至119家，而三年前则为187家。
在3.8万多受访者中，近40%的人称他们为了应对眼下的经济危机，已经不经常出去吃饭，或者选择去较便宜的餐馆就餐。
Zagat调查发现，今年纽约的餐饮物价整体上涨了3.3%，大大超过过去六年所保持的1%。其中高端消费者倍受打击，价格涨幅达到了近10%。
在纽约出去吃一顿饭平均花费为40.78美元，低于全美最高的、拉斯维加斯的44.44美元，比起巴黎、东京甚至多伦多等其它国家的首都则要低得多。
调查指出，这些“鼓舞人心”的发现可以解释为什么今年纽约冒出了很多汉堡店、皮萨店和烤肉店。就连阿兰•杜卡斯和希恩-乔治四•沃格里腾这样的名厨也开起了小酒馆或拉面馆。
好消息大都关于那些在评级中名列前茅的餐馆。Per Se首次摘得菜品和服务“双科冠军”，食客们对它的评价是“令人难忘、无与伦比的美食享受”，这家餐厅的平均消费为303美元。
主题餐厅“美国女孩”和“滚石咖啡”再次垫底，但名人会所Elanie’s 的服务和装修这两项指标得分更低，排在最后一名。
经济危机：我们老百姓能做些什么？
Billions of pounds have been wiped off the value of shares after recession fears sparked panic selling across the world. The experts say there is more pain to come - and everyone will eventually feel the impact of the market downturn.
I have shares, should I worry?
If you are still holding stocks and shares in individual companies you're either a hardy soul or have been burying your head in the sand as the markets have been jittery since the start of the year. "This is fairly late in the day - nervous investors will have already moved into cash or safer investments," says Martin Bamford, an independent financial adviser at Informed Choices.
Baby
If you do hold money in the market you need to decide if it is time to crystallise your losses, or if you have the stomach to sit tight and hope for a recovery. Parents who have invested their child trust fund (CTF) voucher in the stockmarket should not be too alarmed - there are years to go before the money can be withdrawn, or in the case of a stakeholder CTF is moved to safer investments, in which time the market could recover.
I moved my money - will I be OK?
It depends where and when you moved it. Money market funds, which had traditionally been seen as a safe haven for investors, have been falling too, while commodities prices have also been dropping. Property funds are doing badly and even cash accounts, which used to be regarded as the safest of safe places to put your money, have had a bad week with the collapse of Icesave. Fixed-interest securities, which traditionally do well when stock markets fall, have failed to ignite this time round, but Bamford reckons they will bounce soon. But he adds: "There is risk in every type of asset class in a recession."
My pension is invested in the stock market. Should I be worried?
Most people start moving money into safer investments as they near retirement, so those with pensions invested in stocks and shares should still have time on their side. However, Bamford says there will be some people approaching retirement who are still exposed to the markets. "There will be people who have been completely caught out by this," he says. "They might have to reconsider their plans for retirement - the timing and their lifestyle may have to be different."
Earlier this week, Hargreaves Lansdown said the value of personal pensions had fallen by a fifth since last year. The latest wave of falls will have wiped even more off their value. However, the firm's head of pensions research, Tom McPhail, says if you have more than 10 years until retirement the best strategy "is just to ignore what is going on at the moment". He explains: "This will all have probably played out by the time you get to retirement, so you should keep paying your regular contributions to your pension."
I have an occupational pension - will I be hit?
You could be. If it is a defined contribution scheme, where the amount you receive when you retire depends on the performance of the assets in which it is invested, then you are in the same boat as anyone with a personal pension. If you are about to retire the company operating your work pension should have been moving your share of the money into safer assets, so you won't be hit too hard. If you have years to go before you finish work, then there is time for losses to be recovered.
If you have a final salary scheme, where the amount you get is linked to your earnings, then you will be insulated from the falls in the short term, says McPhail. "In the medium term it will have an impact, though. One result that we will see is final salary schemes closing at a faster rate than at the moment."
Ros Altmann, an independent pensions analyst, says most employers are likely to give up on final salary schemes: "Most of them were in deficit before the market falls, and almost all will be now." More worrying, she says, is that if your company fails and you end up having to claim your pension through the Pension Protection Fund, you will only get 90% of what you had saved.
My pension has plummeted and now I have to buy an annuity
Unless you have reached 75, at which point the rules say you have to use your fund to buy an annuity to provide you with an income, you might want to sit tight in case the market recovers. The sum of money you have with which to buy the annuity will determine how much you have to live on for the rest of your life, so you might want to wait to see if your fund recovers some of its value and you can buy a better income. The government is considering suspending the rules so that those who have reached 75 can also wait.
However, McPhail warns: "The risk of not cashing in your investment is that there is no certainty that the market will recover soon." And while you wait for it to bounce back, annuity rates could fall. "If you are keeping your money in the market waiting for a recovery, then keep your eye on annuity rates too," he says.
If you are concerned, it would be wise to take advice.
I don't have shares or a pension - will I be OK?
"It's easy to see it as just problems in the financial markets, but this is going to have a knock-on effect on everybody," says Bamford. "The only questions are to what extent and how long it will take to feel the impact."
As the FTSE falls value is knocked off the UK's biggest companies, leaving them with less money to invest. Instead of expanding their businesses they could start reducing staff numbers, leading to redundancies.
Those companies do not exist in a vacuum - they do business with other firms who will also be hit if they start to rein in their spending. Workers everywhere could eventually feel the impact of the downturn.
Is there any good news?
A little. The price of oil has slumped in recent weeks, which should mean cheaper petrol and could ultimately push down gas prices. Interest rates have been cut by 0.5% this week and further cuts are likely as the Bank tries to prop up the UK economy, which is good news for the third of borrowers on tracker mortgages. And while base rate cuts are usually bad news for savers, the fact that banks and building societies are seeking cash means they are still offering attractive interest rates on deposits.
经济衰退导致的恐慌性抛售导致股票市值被抹去了数十亿英镑。专家们说，这还不算完呢－－最终，每个人都会感受到市场低迷的冲击。
我是持股人，我该担心吗？
如果您手中仍有个别公司的股票，不是心理承受力特强的话，那就是从年初市场动荡的时候开始就一门心思死扛了。马丁.班福特(Martin Bamford)，Informed Choices公司的独立财经投资顾问说：“现在已经太晚了，稳健的投资者转成了现金或更安全的投资领域”。
如果您在市场中资金，那割肉的时候到了；或者，您有安安稳稳坐等经济恢复的本事。向儿童信托基金投资（CTF）的父母无需太过担心－－离取出这些钱还有相当长的一段时间，否则，若CTF的持股人把资金转到更安全的投资项目时，市场可能已经复苏了。
我已经离市，总该没事了吧？
这要看看您把资金移到了哪里，什么时候转移的。传统上被投资者们视为安全天堂的货币基金同样在下跌，于此同时，日用品的价格也在下跌。产权基金糟透了，即使是现金账户，这个曾被认为是最安全存钱地点的地方，也因为Icesave的崩溃经历了糟糕的一周。固定利率的有价证券，传统上认为会在证券下跌时表现尚佳的它，这次却没有爆发它的小宇宙，但是班福特预计他们会很快反弹。他补充说，“在经济不景气中，任何形式的资产都有风险。”
我的退休金都投到了股市，我该担心吗？
大多数人在临近退休时把他们的投资转成了比较安全的投资方式，所以，这些把退休金投入证券和股票的人此刻仍有时间。然而，, Bamford说，部分临近退休者仍有暴露于市场危机中的风险。“有些人将完全意识到这一点，他们必须重新审议自己的退休计划－－不论是在退休时间还是退休后的生活方式上都将被迫变得不同。”
本周早些时候，Hargreaves Lansdown 曾说，个人退休金的价值自去年开始已缩水了五分之一。最近几天的下跌浪潮使得缩水数值变得更大。退休金研究公司的主管汤姆.麦克菲尔(Tom McPhail)说，如果离退休尚有10年以上，那么此刻的最佳策略就是“充耳不闻”。他解释说：“等到退休金开始发放时，很可能这一切都已经过去了，所以您应该保持退休金的缴纳。”
我有一份职业养老金－－这会被冲击吗？
有可能。如果这是一份界定养老金（defined contribution scheme），在这种养老金中，您的收益和基金的资产投资收益表现挂钩，就是说，您和任何同样持有个人养老金的人坐在一条船上。
麦克菲尔说，最终薪金方案（ final salary scheme）中，您的收益和与收入挂钩，如果您有这项方案，就可以避免短期的下挫。“虽然在中期上仍然会有冲击。最终我们可以看到的一个结果是，在这段时间，薪金方案关闭速度要得快得多。”
罗斯.奥特曼(Ros Altmann)，独立退休金分析师。他说，多数的雇员倾向于放弃最终薪金方案：“他们中的多数人在市场下挫之前就已经出现了赤字，现在几乎全部出现了赤字。”更令人担忧的事情是，如果您的公司已倒闭，并最终不得不从养老金保障基金（Pension Protection Fund）取出退休金的话，您能得到的只是所存全部金额的90％。
我的退休金暴跌，现在必须去买一份年金（annuity）了。
除非您已经75岁了，处于这种情况下，规定上说您必须用存款买一份年金以提供一份收入，您可以坐等可能出现的市场复苏。您用来买年的资金量将决定您余生赖以为生的收入，所以，也许您想等等看您的基金价值是否能回弹一些，这样您的收入就会有所改善。政府正在考虑延缓这些规定，这样，达到75岁的人群仍可等待一段时间。
然而，麦克菲尔警告说：“投资不兑现的风险在于，市场复苏的明确信号并不存在。”而在您等待经济反弹的时候，年金收益率可能已经下调了。“如果您把资金放在市场里等待复苏就一定要紧密关注年金收益率。”
如果您理解了这一点，就会知道，采纳建议是一种很聪明的方式。
我没有股票或退休金，总该安全了吧？
班福特说：“单纯的金融领域的问题易于发现，但是金融领域的问题会引起连锁反应，唯一的问题是，范围会有多大，感受到冲击需要多长时间。”
富时指数上英国大公司们市值的大跌导致他们可投资资金的减少。无须扩展市场，他们可以开始减少员工的数量，这导致裁员。
这些公司并非存在于真空中－－他们与其他同样紧缩开支的公司做生意。最终所有的雇员都可以感受到市场低迷的冲击。
有什么好消息吗？
很少。近几周，石油价格暴跌，这意味着便宜的汽油，最终将导致油价下跌。本周，银行试图救市，利率下调了0.5％并有进一步下调的可能，这对贷款追踪的第三方借贷者来说是个好消息。一般来说，基本利率的下调对于储蓄者是坏消息，而银行和建筑业正寻求现金这一事件意味着他们仍将为储蓄提供诱人的利率。
Federal Budget Deficit Hits Record High
WASHINGTON — The federal budget deficit soared to $454.8 billion in 2008 as a housing collapse and efforts to combat the economic slowdown pushed the tide of government red ink to the highest level in history.
The Bush administration said Tuesday the deficit for the budget year that ended Sept. 30 was more than double the $161.5 billion recorded in 2007.
It surpassed the previous record of $413 billion set in 2004. Economists predicted a far worse number next year as the costs of the government's rescue of the financial system and the economic hard times hit the government's balance sheet.
Some analysts believe that next year's deficit could easily top $700 billion, giving the next president a formidable challenge.
The administration blamed this year's record deficit on a litany of economic woes. The prolonged housing slump sharply reduced economic growth and has sent the unemployment rate rising, developments that reduce tax revenues.
"This year's budget results reflect the ongoing housing correction and the manifestation of that in strained capital markets and slower growth," Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in a statement accompanying the deficit report. "While it will take time to work through this period, we will overcome the current challenges facing our nation."
The credit crisis that has swamped the financial system is boosting outlays because of the costs of protecting the depositors of failed banks.
Those costs will increase significantly in coming years. The government faces the prospects of paying for the $700 billion rescue plan that will boost spending as the government spends $250 billion in coming months to buy stock from banks to bolster their balance sheets and also buys up bad assets currently on banks' books.
Both of those programs are aimed at relieving strains on banks so they can resume more normal lending and ease a credit crisis that is threatening to push the country into a severe recession.
Many private economists believe the country will not be able to escape a recession even if the rescue program is successful at getting banks to resume lending.
The Bush administration is projecting that the deficit in the current budget year will rise to $482 billion, but that estimate made in the summer does not include the costs of the rescue program passed by Congress on Oct. 3.
The deficit for 2008 reflected the costs incurred in recent months for a $168 billion economic stimulus program that Congress passed at the beginning of this year in an effort to combat the economic slowdown. Those checks did give the economy a boost in the late spring and early summer. That impact has now faded leading many analysts to project that the current quarter and the first three months of next year will show declines in overall input.
Economics focus
Redefining recession
A new yardstick for measuring slumps is long overdue
THERE has been a nasty outbreak of R-worditis. Newspapers are full of stories about which of the big economies will be first to dip into recession as a result of the credit crunch. The answer depends largely on what you mean by “recession”. Most economists assume that it implies a fall in real GDP. But this has created a lot of confusion: the standard definition of recession needs rethinking.
In the second quarter of this year, America’s GDP rose at a surprisingly robust annualised rate of 3.3%, while output in the euro area and Japan fell, and Britain’s was flat. Many economists reckon that both Japan and the euro area could see a second quarter of decline in the three months to September. This, according to a widely used rule of thumb, would put them in recession, a fate which America has so far avoided. But on measures other than GDP, America has been the economic laggard over the past year.
The chart looks at several different ways to judge the severity of the economic slowdown since the start of the credit crunch in August 2007. On GDP growth, America has outperformed Europe and Japan. Unemployment, however, tells a very different tale. America’s jobless rate hit 6.1% in August, up from 4.7% a year earlier, and within spitting distance of its peak of 6.3% during the previous recession after the dotcom bust. Other countries have so far published figures only for July, but their jobless rates have barely moved over the past year: Japan’s has risen by only 0.2%, the euro area’s has fallen slightly (though in absolute terms it is still a bit higher than America’s). Another yardstick, GDP per head, takes account of the fact that America’s population is rising rapidly, whereas Japan’s has started to shrink. Since the third quarter of 2007 America’s average income per person has barely increased; Japan’s has enjoyed the biggest gain.
1,
政府为陷入麻烦银行提供新帮助 (Governments Offer New Help for Troubled Banks)
世界各国政府今天(星期一)采取行动以数以10亿美元计的巨额资金救助银行。这些政府试图让银行恢复借贷业务，重振可能使世界经济陷于衰退的停滞的信贷市场。
几天来，在巴黎和华盛顿举行的危机问题会谈确定了很多具体措施。英国政府说，将拨出630多亿美元，供本国的三大银行使用。如果这些银行充分利用政府注入的资金，那么英国政府就将成为这三家银行的最大股东。
德国政府制定了一项价值6千多亿美元的美元救助计划，支持本国的金融系统。德国政府还提出为银行注入资金，并对很多贷款提供保障。
美国说，将迅速把本国的7千亿美元救助方案安排妥当并付诸施行。布什政府任命了实施这项方案的诸多临时主管，并咨询法律专家，寻求取得银行控股地位以及收购不良投资的最佳方式。
Governments around the world are moving to bolster banks with multi billion dollar bailouts today (Monday). They are trying to get banks to resume lending and restart the stalled credit market that threatens to push the world into recession.
Many of the details were worked out in crisis talks over the past few days in Paris and Washington. The British government says it will make more than 63-billion dollars available to three major banks. If the banks take full advantage of the capital infusion, the government could become the largest shareholder in each.
Germany's government put together a dollar rescue plan worth more than 600 billion dollars to shore up its financial system. It offers fresh money to banks and guarantees many loans.
The United States says it is moving quickly to get its 700-billion dollar rescue plan organized and running. The Bush Administration has named interim managers for the effort and is consulting with legal experts to find the best way to buy an ownership stake in banks, and to buy up faltering investments.
2,
全球股市下滑 七国集团开会 (Finance Ministers Meet as World Markets Plunge)
Leaders of the world's largest economies confronted a global financial system in shambles today (Friday) as they gathered in Washington to cope with a plunging stock market, a frozen credit market, and fears the world is headed for recession. U.S. stock markets plunged around five percent in the first few minutes of trading, but later recovered in volatile trading. Key European stock market indexes were down sharply in afternoon trading. Steep declines forced officials in Russia and Indonesia to suspend trading indefinitely. Brazilian officials suspended trading temporarily after declines of at least ten percent. And Japan's Nikkei index was off nearly 10 percent at the close -- its biggest one-day loss since 1987.
Officials from the Group of Seven industrialized nations are gathering in Washington ahead of a meeting of the International Monetary Fund, and will meet with U.S. President George Bush on Saturday. In televised remarks today (Friday), Mr. Bush tried to reassure investors around the world. He said officials are taking strong measures to solve the crisis, and blamed "fear" for what he described as the "startling" drop in stock prices. Mr. Bush said the United States is a wealthy nation with the tools and resources to solve these problems, and urged Americans to be confident in the country's future.
世界一些经济大国的领导人星期五面对分崩离析的全球金融系统。他们在华盛顿开会，应对急剧下滑的股市、冻结的信贷市场以及对全球走向经济衰退的恐惧。美国股市继星期四下滑之后，星期五开市后几分钟再暴跌5%，但是后来在动荡的交易中收复了失地。欧洲主要股市指数在下午交易中直落。股市暴跌迫使俄罗斯和印度尼西亚的官员下令无限期停止股市交易。巴西政府官员在股市下跌至少10%后暂时停止了股市交易。日本的日经指数收盘时跌落将近10%，创下自1987年以来的最大单日跌幅。
来自七大工业国的官员在国际货币基金组织召开会议之前到华盛顿开会。他们将于星期六和布什总统会见。布什总统在电视实况转播讲话中试图让世界各地的投资者放心。他说，政府官员正在采取强有力的措施来化解危机，并指责说，“恐惧心理”造成股票价格的“惊人”跌落。布什总统说，美国是一个富有国家，拥有解决这些问题的工具和资源。他敦促美国人民对国家未来抱有信心。
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